A rush of new data centers could bring air pollution roaring back to levels not seen since the 2000s in Texas, according to a new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC). The state has become ground zero for the physical infrastructure behind generative AI, and the environmental cost is mounting fast.
If all planned and proposed data center projects were to plug into the Texas grid powered by the anticipated energy mix, fine particle pollution would more than triple — reaching its highest level since 2006. Smog-forming NOx emissions would increase 136 percent, approaching 2004 levels. Planet-heating CO2 pollution would climb 90 percent above 2025 figures.
Texas leads the US in data center capacity with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity, and is bracing for four times more proposed on-site generation capacity than any other state. In many cases, developers are turning to less efficient gas turbine technology to speed construction, making the boom more polluting than necessary.
The outlook is not entirely bleak. HARC modeled scenarios where data centers pair grid power with on-site renewable energy — under that model, NOx emissions could be up to 10 times lower. But if developers build gas engines on-site to bypass grid wait times, pollution would hit the worst-case scenario. "There is a good chance our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did," said HARC CEO John Hall.
